Will any U.S. Senate seat scheduled for the November 2024 election be decided by fewer than 0.1% of its district votes?
Basic
3
Ṁ260Nov 9
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The following states have one or both U.S. Senate seat(s) up for election this year in November:
Arizona
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Indiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
North Dakota
Nebraska* (one general and one special election to replace Ben Sasse)
Nevada
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
I will review the data from all of these elections, and once certified, will resolve this market YES if any of these elections are determined by less than 0.1% of the votes received. I will not round down; the number must be 0.001 or less.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the 2024 presidential election be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes?
3% chance
Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 1%?
61% chance
Which states will be decided by less than 10 points in 2024?
Will any Senate seat flip from Democratic to Republican in the 2024 elections?
99% chance
Which states will be decided by less than 5 points in 2024?
Will the 2024 US presidential election be extremely close (within 100,000 votes for electors to the Electoral College)?
10% chance
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 US Presidential election in Wisconsin be greater than 1%?
41% chance
Will Alaska be decided by less than 5% in 2024?
2% chance
Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 0.5%?
47% chance
Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 0.1%?
17% chance