CLOSES Dec. 31 2024

Background Trading participation varies significantly based on market visibility, topic interest, and platform reach. On Manifold, market participation typically ranges from a few traders to several hundred for the most popular markets. Factors affecting participation include:

• Market visibility and promotion

• Topic relevance and broad appeal

• Duration of the market

• Clarity of resolution criteria

• Potential for profitable trading opportunities

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the final number of unique traders who have placed at least one trade (buy or sell) in this market before it closes. The count will be determined using Manifold's trading data. If a trader makes multiple trades, they will only be counted once.

Considerations

• This is a self-referential market, meaning trading activity itself affects the outcome

• Traders may be incentivized to encourage or discourage others from participating based on their positions

• The market's visibility on Manifold's platform (featured status, sharing, etc.) could significantly impact participation

• Historical data suggests most Manifold markets attract between 10-100 traders, though there are notable exceptions on both ends of the spectrum