"Collapse" is defined as a decline of 50% of monthly active users or daily active users (whichever happens first) from it's all-time peak. If the site itself has widespread outages for more than two weeks straight, that will also count.
As long as twitter has not collapsed, this market stays open until January 1, 2027. If it hasn't happened by then, this market resolves "Not before 2027"
https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-twitter-collapse-by-the-end-of?r=QmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ
@MicahLinnemeier if it's credible that a significant number of the users are no longer human, we'll count that as a decline. of course we humans will need to be around to resolve this market
@samb we will look for official reporting, or, if that's not available, the most credible proxy stats that any independent researcher is able to produce.