@KevinBurke the highest in theory, yes. In reality, no. Guess we didn't bet on the lengths some people will go to to make sure someone who's been president before won't be president again
@Ronan I assume the real-money markets have Trump higher? They usually tend to give Republicans higher chances, while Manifold gives Democrats higher chances. I think it's because the user bases are different, and there's some wishcasting going on.
@PlasmaBallin Yeah exactly.
Bit odd though, would seem like an arbitrage opportunity if the money markets are wishcasting
@Ronan They're typically not that far apart once you account for opportunity costs and spread (Which can give something like 5% of leeway).
The hot CPI forcing bonds up and tanking the market plus Iran possibly striking Israel and sending up oil prices/possible recession seem to help Trump more than the Arizona abortion situation helps Biden.
Taking my profit from the ramp up from previous negative sentiment against Trumpโs chances. I donโt see this going higher than uncertainty without a black swan event. I thought it would be inevitable that Trump would be the mainstream candidate for the GOP but now that we are here I donโt know what will happen next.
@PatrickDelaney The labor market is deteriorating fast from surveys such as NFIB, Kansas City Fed, JOLTS, NY Fed, ISM, and Household Employment BLS survey
@riverwalk3 Found one that I think you're talking about...? https://www.kansascityfed.org/LMCI/documents/10035/lmci_031224.pdf