What will happen first

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Ṁ1538

2034

40%

A nuke (of any size) will be detonated above ground in a test orchestrated by humans.

38%

A nuke (of any size) will be detonated in a conflict or as an act of terror by humans.

25%

A nuclear missile is decommissioned in order for its fissile material to be used to power a nuclear power plant that provides power to an AI datacenter.

13%

An AI accident or malevolent act causes a nuke to detonate.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#What Will Happen Markets

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@strutheo check out the hashtags for this market.

Total probabilities should add up to at most 100% (less if everything resolves to NO if none has happened on the scheduled close date)

They're currently at 169% (nice).

bought Ṁ150 An AI accident or ma... NO

Only one option can resolve yes, right?

@TheAllMemeingEye Only one option can resolve yes.

bought Ṁ50 A nuclear missile is... NO

@LesterCrafton thanks :)

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