When will the TSA update their security regulations to permit carrying liquid bottles over 300ml on commercial flights ?
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33
Ṁ1525
2028
1.8%
2024
5%
2025
10%
2026
3%
2027
4%
2028
3%
2029
7%
2030
7%
2031
8%
2032
3%
2033
5%
2034
4%
2035
5%
2036
6%
2037
5%
2038
5%
2039
7%
2040
11%
Other

This rule has to aply to all average US citizen flight passengers on US flight, a specific TSA PreCheck rule wouldn't address this query. If individuals like criminals or those under observation are excluded from this regulation, the question would still be resolved "YES".

International flights are NOT relevant to this question.

The resolution of this question will be based on the announcement and will be determined by the year this rule takes effect.

A minimum bottle size of over 300 ml is specified, a rule allowing up to 300 ml would not resolve this question.

If the TSA undergoes a name change or another organization is responsible for this decisions, it won't impact the outcome of the question.

The question's closing date might be extended and I might add new options.

It must be allowed to take a bottle filled with more than 300ml of liquids. If the rule specifies that the liquid must be clear, the question will still be resolved. If the rule requires the bottle to be closed, I'll most likely be motivated to resolve the question. If it involves some form of testing and it's free, I'll resolve it. However, if it requires paid testing or doesn't accept a regular bottle bought in a standard grocery store, I won't resolve it.

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Is there actually any good reason for the restrictions on liquids on flights? This market tries to find out when the restrictions might change. (USA specific but I think it's interesting from an international point of view too.)

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Interesting question, my best guess is that any election year is likely to be a few percentage points more likely due to new administrations (left or right wing) running on platforms of significant regulatory changes that they'll try to implement ASAP.

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@TheAllMemeingEye haha it worked

@strutheo Lmao ok somehow it worked then haha

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Want to ice the pilot? Let's determine when we'll finally be able to bring a Smirnoff Ice through airport security.

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This market has 23 traders and seemingly absolutely no idea what the answer is. No one seems to have posted any reasoning in the comments about what answer they're choosing. Total chaos. No one has learned anything yet.

@Eliza We just aren't signal boosting hard enough

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Cool market. Has a commercial airline ever been bombed via carryon? Ever? I know the unabomber tried (and failed), but he didn't do it via carry-on iirc

@Tumbles but has a commercial airline ever been bombed via carrion?

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@traders Bet you can't predict this one correctly!

@traders Bet you can't predict this one correctly!

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Cool market

Cool market.

2025

Why's 2025 trading at so much higher than the following 4 years? Is there a one-time-only chance to change rules in 2025 or is this related to some other process.

Things are looking pretty grim so far.

Boosted.

@Eliza O boi, you're destroying my experiment

@Eliza I've already boosted it with M$1250

@Lion 😂 OH NO

@Eliza at least just M$75, I'll just ignore it, but you could claim the bounty ❤

@Lion I will let other users claim your generous bounty.

@Eliza I just increased my offer to M$3/follower.

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Interesting Market

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