When will Blue Origin reach orbit?
Basic
8
Ṁ2132101
2024
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve when Blue Origin has a successful orbital flight and return to Earth (even if the landing system is not perfect). If Blue Origin dissolves, or stops trying, or etc. this market will resolve to MAX, so if you want to bet NO, that is the same as HIGHER
If not resolving to MAX, market will resolve to YEAR + ((DAY - 1) / length(YEAR))
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@LivInTheLookingGlass The bounds are way too big, which makes it not worth it to adjust it by a year up or down: big investment for almost no payoff. For a market like this I would have made it 2022—2027, and if it's later than that it would resolve to 2027.
But in general binary yes/no markets tend to work better in my experience
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