When, if ever, will Lorxus, the author of this market, die in Tontine?
8
355αΉ8392050
0.7%
2023
1.4%
2024
2%
2025
3%
2026
0.9%
2027
1%
2028
91%
https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-9-22, 365 players remain.
The market resolves to the calendar year in which Lorxus first forgets to check in to Tontine, dying and losing the game in the process, or to the calendar year in which Lorxus wins Tontine, if they should win. If Lorxus participates in a split, the market will resolve to the calendar year during which the split was enacted, not the year when it was agreed to, if the two should differ.
I will add new choices as they become necessary.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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