![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252Fuavuy7g3Xq.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3D535e7cf7-8746-4b61-b8fd-93ecb3187c8e&w=3840&q=75)
Will it cost $30 to train a GPT-3 level model in 2030?
Basic
18
Ṁ9902031
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FdfNXMJL3YR.png?alt=media&token=3b2a756f-901f-41ef-bf42-e4fa141f3730)
If Ark's prediction proves correct, this market resolves to YES. I'll leave the definitions open, relying in experts (I hope my GF is a PhD in ML by then), but both press releases and opinion of experts, including the specialized press, will count to this market.
I won't bet.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?
81% chance
Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $1,000 by 2030?
75% chance
Will OpenAI offer a higher-tier version of ChatGPT, priced above US$49, by 2025?
78% chance
Will a GPT-4 level system be trained for <$1mm by 2030?
86% chance
Will a GPT-4 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?
78% chance
Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024?
85% chance
Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in under 1 hour, by EOY 2027?
18% chance
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
48% chance
Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
57% chance
Will OpenAI offer a cheaper paid tier (<20$) or reduce the price of ChatGPT Plus by more than 5$ in 2024?
32% chance