According to Elon Musk, the most entertaining outcome is the most likely
This market resolves to YES if the election of 2024 has an entertaining outcome, according to my own judgment. This means something very unusual that will make a politics junk like me very entertained.
Here's an non-exaustive list of possible outcomes:
A constitucional crisis
A tie in the Electoral College
A civil war
One of the candidates die and there's a scramble to decide who fills the ticket (not all deaths are entertaining)
A jailed criminal is elected president
Faithless electors change the outcome of the election
A State legislature doesn't send the votes widely known as the correct ones
The list goes on
I think I would only consider the recent 2000 election as entertaining.
This market resolves on the inauguration day.
I won't bet. I can provide guidance in the comments.
Related questions
I must say I think we are going to have a very entertaining outcome. Many good stuff in the cards
- 25th amendment being seriously discussed. See /MP/will-a-vice-president-with-the-cabi
- Trump sentencing in September.
- The prospect of a 270 to 268 win in the electoral college. (No one seriously think Dems have a shot in AZ, NV, Georgia, right?)
No way that nothing will ever happen.
I love these markets where everyone is betting small amounts, not really sure what the odds should be. A fellow like @GabboBot comes up and bets YES a lot and no one decides to push back down again.