Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)
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Plus
10
Ṁ4952
Dec 31
33%
D Gukesh
33%
Fabiano Caruana
9%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
6%
Arjun Erigaisi
3%
Alireza Firouzja
2%
Other
2%
Hikaru Nakamura
1.7%
Praggnanandhaa R
1.4%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
1.4%
Ding Liren
1.3%
Magnus Carlsen
1.3%
Wesley So
1.1%
Vidit Gujrathi

Based on official FIDE classical ratings, not live.

If two players pass the threshold at the same update, will resolve based on who passed the threshold in live ratings first. If there is still a tie, then it will resolve based on which tied player has the higher rating.

Can resolve as someone currently rated 2800 or above in the event that they dip below 2800 in the official (non live) ratings and then passes it again in a later month.

Resolution date will be extended as needed.

Rating source: https://ratings.fide.com/

  • Update 2025-09-01 (PST): - Resolution Date will not occur in January 2025. (AI summary of creator comment)

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bought Ṁ10 YES

After 5 rounds of Tata Steel, here are the live ratings:

These are not official ratings, so it doesn't yet count as Fabi and Arjun dropping below 2800. Arjun seems basically guaranteed to, though. Tata Steel ends Feb 2, so these games won't impact the official ratings until the March list.

Doesn't resolve January 2025

bought Ṁ100 NO

Erigaisi finished Qatar Masters at 2800.6 live, so he'll be over 2800 on the January list.

@DanielTilkin He was also over 2800 in the December list: https://ratings.fide.com/profile/35009192/chart

@JonathanNankivell Yes, I meant that he won't drop below 2800. So to get this, he still needs to drop below, then go above again.

@creator need to add Arjun to the list in the description it could resolve to. Probably to the list of answers as well.

@DanielTilkin I believe people can add answers, so feel free to!

@Mad Done!

@DanielTilkin note that cross has always meant exceed, hence the note in the description about Magnus etc being eligible if they go below and then back above. I'll rename the market

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