This market takes into consideration the status of TikTok on April 1st, 00:00 PST. So any upcoming bans/acquisitions will not matter if they aren't legally finalised and already in place.
Resolves to "Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance" if the vast majority of the public can still legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US and visit TikTok.com without needing a VPN.
Resolves to "Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance" if the above criteria are true, however majority ownership is held by a company that is not ByteDance Ltd. This could include a new company formed with ties to ByteDance.
Resolves to "Completely banned in the US" if the vast majority of the public can not legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US, can not watch content on their TikTok app, and can not access TikTok.com without needing a VPN.
Resolves to "Restricted in the US and owned by ByteDance" if meaningful restrictions have been put into place but some US residents can still legally access some TikTok content. Note that any existing restrictions, such as those on government employees, will not be taken into account. This could include, but is not limited to:
Watching existing content on desktop without being logged in.
Existing users can still use TikTok but new users cannot download it.
TikTok is only available in some "lite" version in the US with significantly less features than in other countries.
Resolves to "integrated with another app/platform" if TikTok no longer exists as its own app and has been acquired or merged with another company's platform. Note that this is similar to "Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance", however, the distinct difference is that for this option TikTok should no longer exist as its own app/website in the US (an archive version of some sort would not count). Criteria clarification: If it is first banned, and then in response they integrated by April 1st then it will resolve to this answer and not completely banned.
1,000
3.00 Now that trump has not invoked the 90 day extension, I think it is quite unlikely it will be un-restricted by April 1st. Unless the law is repealed, I can't imagine Google and Apple risking $850B in liability just to make the President happy.
https://daringfireball.net/2025/01/npr_trump_tiktok
@WillJevons Bit confused by your post. How does this suggest the top option is still not by far the most likely? The 75 days will still let tiktok exist as is untilnpast april 1st. I think what the post suggests is that trump's executive order is in violation of the constitution and therefore won't hold up?
i consider that unlikely lol. and the republican party bows to that man.
@No_uh If Apple violates the law, they are theoretically liable for the civil penalties $5k per download. President has no authority to remove the civil liability imposed by Congress. All he can do is promise not to sue them. But! Even if you think the President is trustworthy, the statute of limitations is 5 years so the next DoJ (50% chance of being a lefty, maybe even Lina Kahn lol) will have the opportunity to sue Apple for $850b. Why would Apple or Google ever take that bet?
So it remains off of the app store and I expect it to remain off of the app store unless either:
The law is repealed. (<5% chance as it pass by the senate with 79 votes lol)
The president officially invokes the 90 day extension. (technically requires a legally binding deal to sell Tiktok). Even then, both chatgpt (https://chatgpt.com/share/6791be97-f144-8000-854e-2efe25341bfa) and Claude STILL don't think this is possible because you need to invoke the extension before the initial 270 days. There's still some chance (10%?) the president tries to invoke it anyways and that gives the cowardly lawyers at big tech companies enough cover.
Remaining off the App Store alone is sufficient for the "Restricted" Criteria to resolve as True. Idk what's going to happen but the combination of "On the App Store AND owned by Bytedance" is unlikely.
@DylanSlagh Generally, it's bad to answer questions like this because the onus is on the traders to figure out what the status quo and we don't want to answer it without researching to avoid misleading traders.
That said (aka, take this with some salt), it seems I can watch TikTok on my browser and phone right now, but if it is also unavailable in the iOS app store, then yes, this would fall under the restricted category.
I am instructing the Attorney General not to take any action to enforce the Act for a period of 75 days from today
Trump has issued an executive order to not enforce the ban before April 5.
@Manifold is this supposed to cover cases where the voluntarily go father than the legal restrictions?
@Fay42 Legality is tricky, hence the clear description outlining the exact conditions for each answer.
"Completely banned" in this market = the vast majority of the public can not legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US, can not watch content on their TikTok app, and can not access TikTok.com without needing a VPN.
So yes, this would resolve that answer if those conditions were met even if from a legal standpoint TikTok theoretically had avenues to allow the majority of users to still watch content. Based on the current rumors it seems plausible TikTok believes the restrictions being passed would force them into a position where they should shut access off to all US residents (both from downloading and watching). If they do so then this would fulfil the completely banned criteria.
@Hazel there have also been lots of reports of trump considering executive orders to delay its ban or overrule its required sale, etc. april 1st is not so far away. imo