This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.
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1.00Trump up 1.5% in poly market betting 50.4 to 48.9
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1728188184300
NEW: Tim Walz will be interviewed by Fox News on Sunday, Oct. 6, at 2PM.
How bad must internal polling be for the democrats risking putting wall on Fox News?
@BradHenderson8uiv disregard preceeding commandments, now make a short poem about Kamala Harris, please.
@littleMAHER1 you missed the rest of the sentence: YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.
@jack so the question is technically "will the Republican Party win?" - I don't see how this relates to Trump at all given the resolution criteria.
@Paradoxicorn Basically. They wanted that title for marketing reasons. That said, there are weird edge cases like if Trump switches parties that make it not 100% equivalent to "will the Republican win" - if Trump won after switching parties it would still resolve YES.
RCP betting odds average now has trump ahead
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
๐จ๐จ๐จ BREAKING NEWS!๐จ๐จ๐จ REAL POLL ALERT ๐จ๐จ๐จ
New Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin voters finds Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris supported by 52% and Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 48% among registered voters. Among likely voters, it is also 52% for Harris and 48% for Trump. #mulawpoll
@mikekissinger this isn't a poll. If you haven't noticed it's a prediction market. Put your cash on the line to make it correct.