Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050? | Manifold

Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?

Plus

12

Ṁ210

2050

49%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

To calculate the outcome of this event, we'll determine the REAL Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the S&P 500 using its opening value on the first trading day of 2024 and the first trading day of 2050 and the changes in the CPI between the two dates. Several factors could influence this outcome:

1. Inflation: As we're considering nominal returns, periods of high inflation could cause the stock market to rise without offering real returns.

2. Global Power Shifts: Changes in the global power balance may significantly impact market performance.

3. Global Catastrophes: Wars, pandemics, and similar events can drastically affect market stability and growth.

4. Technological Breakthroughs: Advances that increase productivity could lead to substantial market growth.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#S&P 500 Changes

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

predicts NO

I think it will look like the Nikkei 225. The stock market does not go up forever. GDP growth is unlikely to be higher than 2% per year from now to 2050 due to demographics.

what about dividends (reinvested?)

Related questions

Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in one day in 2024?

Will S&P 500 increase in 2024?

Will S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer that 365 days before 2035?

Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in Q4 2024?

Will S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer than 365 days before 2030?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 10% over 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 20% over 2024?

Will the S&P500 grow faster than inflation between 2023-2025?

Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?

Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in any quarter of 2025?

Related questions

Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in one day in 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 10% over 2024?

Will S&P 500 increase in 2024?

Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 20% over 2024?

Will S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer that 365 days before 2035?

Will the S&P500 grow faster than inflation between 2023-2025?

Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in Q4 2024?

Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?

Will S&P500 grow more than 100% within any period which is no longer than 365 days before 2030?

Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in any quarter of 2025?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules