How quickly will the Dutch PVV - VVD - NSC - BBB coalition (Schoof I) fall?
➕
Plus
31
Ṁ7552
2028
43%
Within 1 year
91%
Within 2 years
93%
Within 3 years
11%
It will complete the 4-year term
1.5%
Within 6 months
Resolved
NO
Within 3 months

All options will be counted as from the moment of formation of the government (specifically the 'bordesfoto') up until the moment that the prime minister offers his resignation to the king.
Update: starting date is July 2nd 2024

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@MarnixVreugdenhilWithin 3 months can be resolved NO.

bought Ṁ250 Within 1 year YES

I bet 1 year because I hear Geert Wilders is trolling again.

bought Ṁ1 It will complete the... NO

4 years is the term of the Tweede Kamer, right? Therefore it is impossible for the government to last that long.

I don't think that's true, but I could be wrong? Could you elaborate?

(For reference: Rutte 2 was missionary for 4 years and a few months before they resigned)

Aha, gotcha thank you. I'd forgotten about the demissionary period. It's just that I find it slightly odd to say that the coalition "fell" if it lasts until the next election and then gets defeated. This is kinda different than "falling" in the sense that, say, NSC withdraws from the coalition and it thus loses the confidence of the current Kamer.

Also, what happens if the coalition falls afterJuly 3, 2027 but before July 1, 2028? It won't have fallen within 3 years, and it won't have lasted 4 years either.

I think it classifies as fallen if the cabinet offers its resignation to the king, and then a date needs to be found for new elections. In other words: there is a significant period of time where the cabinet is demissionary but no new elections have been held.

Would you agree?

That's a very good point, I didn't think about falling in the 4th year. I'll see if I can still add an extra option.

Looks like I might not be able to do that any more, sorry.

In other words: there is a significant period of time where the cabinet is demissionary but no new elections have been held.

Would you agree?

Yes, and in addition to that there's the period after the election is held and before the new government is formed. Does that count?

The period between the election and the formation of the new government does not count. This is (part of) the demissionary period and is after the prime minister has offered his resignation to the king (see description).

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