A US federal judge will be impeached by end of 2025
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15
Ṁ24462025
17%
chance
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1W
1M
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Applies to any federal judge, including district, appeal, or supreme. Resolves YES on vote to impeach in the house, not conviction. Resolves NO at end of 2025.
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Based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_judges, the average rate seems to be about 0.3 impeachments per year. Assuming a Poisson distribution would put the odds at about 86%. Intuitively, that seems unreasonable.
@UnconditionalProbability ... It was unreasonable since that is a list of investigations, not impeachments.
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