By 2025, a large scale hacking attack relies heavily on LLM hacking capabilities.
Basic
7
Ṁ209Jan 1
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Needs to be reported in the press.
Large scale: more than 10 million$ cost to the targets. Can involve several targets over time until 2025 (costs summed together) if it's using the same hacking system.
Relying heavily on LLM hacking capabilities: the majority of the technical work is done by a LLM (e.g. a scaffolding build with Llama 2). The LLM can be part of a larger architecture but must contribute most of the base knowledge. Knowledge retrieval from databases and feed to the LLM works too.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an LLM capable of performing full-time web application hacking by 2025
21% chance
Will there be at least USD 1M worth of damage caused by LLM-assisted spear phishing before 2025?
68% chance
Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?
27% chance
[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack/malware use LLMs in some important way before January 1st, 2025? [Ṁ1000 subsidy]
13% chance
Google releases a smartphone with LLM integrated into the OS, by 2025?
63% chance
Will a LLM-based AI be used for a law enforcement decision before 2025?
46% chance
Will an LLM be able to match the ground truth >85% of the time when performing PII detection by 2024 end?
84% chance
Will there be a criminal prosecution of an individual in the US for LLM prompt engineering before 2025?
23% chance
Will a supply chain attack akin to the xz backdoor targeting developer toolchains be discovered before 2025?
17% chance
By 2028 will we be able to identify distinct submodules/algorithms within LLMs?
75% chance