Will Nairo Quintana be disqualified or suspended by the UCI in 2024?
Basic
3
Ṁ670
Dec 31
2%
chance

Nairo Quintana is back for the 2024 season after having apparently signed with Moviestar (e.g., see this market). He was suspended in 2022 from the Tour de France after testing positive (twice) for Tramadol. Note that "Tramadol is banned in competition by the UCI, it was only ‘monitored’ by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). However, that is set to change on 1st January, 2024 as WADA adds the narcotic to the ‘prohibited in-competition’ list, so anyone testing positive for Tramadol at a race after that date will be subject to a multi-year suspension" (Escape Collective, 2023-10-28).

This question will only resolve yes if the disqualification or suspension is coming from the UCI; his team dropping him or similar without the above requirement is not sufficient.

This is my first attempt at a question, feedback welcome.

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Note that this market talks about "Disqualification" but it has to be from the UCI. So I think that means if some race results are changed from a result to a DQ, that also counts.

predicts NO

@MaximilianHindermann I updated the closing date to 31 December 2024.

predicts NO

@MaximilianHindermann just checking if you can respond to my question about the closing date. Without a response my default action will be to extend the date to the end of 2024.

Anyway, nice question.

Remember how everyone knew MAL was a danger and then the UCI suspended him partway through the season? I don't think Nairo is in the same situation, but you never know!

Another issue I notice is your market has a closing date of 31 December 2023. Did you mean it to be 31 December 2024?

One thing you can add is to reference the provisional suspension and/or sanction lists from the UCI's website if you want to use them as the official source. Or, if you do not, clarify some other source.

An example of where this gets weird is the Michel Hessmann situation. He has been "suspended" for some time, but not by the UCI. Make sure you know how your market would react to a similar situation for Nairo.

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