Which timezone? UTC?

@JasonDavies [UTC +13:45] Chatham Islands

🤌

wild, so I can move the price of btc if I buy this market down more?

I think this is a complete coinflip but I'd rather not pay the risk so if anyone wants to take my shares at market price lmk. won't set a limit order bc btc price can change and i don't wanna move my limit order continually

@Bayesian I'm honestly counting on most people not wanting to realize profit right before EOY (I for one am avoiding it), the dip yesterday was related to the fed rate cut (wasn't just crypto that went down), at this point under 100k is perceived as a good value imo, but yea being close to 100k it could go the other way last minute due to low liquidity (holidays) (edit: I still blew up most of my mana in this market 😂)

@Choms I blew up like 900 mana on various btc markets because I had no clue that the fed would dropkick us like that

@MaxJiang i can give you a better price than that and a lot of liquidity; 25000M limit order at 66% for a few hours

Honestly, @Bayesian I don't know why you find the title so difficult to understand.

@MerleBtc I don't, no worries

wouldn't the ev be ~0 so the p(ends over 100k) ~= 1/2*p(reaches 100k) <= 50%? that's been my reasoning so far

@Bayesian I think I more or less understood what you said though wtf haha, however, you are not considering anyone buying yes knows if BTC goes over 100k it's for sure gonna end december over that number, and the bull market looks super healthy with the slight corrections (it is happening haha) but regardless the p of both cases are basically the same on the eyes of any yes holder so this is even cheap

@Choms it is not plausible that one would know for sure that btc will end the year above 100k if it reaches 100k for a moment. That would violate some reasonable assumptions of the behaviour of the btc price, and would mean weird stuff like that we would expect the price to jump by many thousands of $ immediately upon hitting 100k. The yes holders who think the probability of both cases is basically the same are not serious but should definitely buy YES so I can get NO at a better price

@Bayesian why I'm gonna buy more expensive YES if I know people don't understand the Bitcoin halving cycles and I can buy cheaper? lol your "reasonable assumptions" ignore the rainbow chart ;)

@Choms I’m not familiar with that

@Bayesian https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/ (I know it sounds like a meme but it hasn't been wrong ever, even the original one tbh)