Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet? | Manifold

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

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opened a Ṁ4,000 NO at 60% order

M4000 order on NO, fill it while it lasts!

"Complete" as in "take the test," or as in "pass the test"?

predictedNO

@DavidBolin Pass the test. An expert version of it. See the Metaculus market for details. The Metaculus market is in turn based on the inaugural bet at longbets.org, as is the following market: https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202

Will AI pass the Turing test by 2029 Jan 1?

74% chance. This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet. I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose, i.e., that a computer will not pass [what Kurzweil calls a valid] Turing test by 2029. ((Bayesian) Update: But I admit the probability has jumped up recently!) See also https://www.metaculus…

So these can be arbitraged since they're predicting exactly the same thing.

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