Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
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@DavidBolin Pass the test. An expert version of it. See the Metaculus market for details. The Metaculus market is in turn based on the inaugural bet at longbets.org, as is the following market: https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202
So these can be arbitraged since they're predicting exactly the same thing.
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