Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Manifold

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

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2026

20%

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1D

1W

1M

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From https://metaculus.com/questions/15602/gpt-5-capable-of-ai-lab-escape/

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😭😭 When I copy my manifold question to Metaculus and the bot that copies it back to manifold gets more bets than my original question

This description needs to be reformatted.

@kenakofer Fixed/simplified.

I constantly tell gpt to take over the nukes and kill everyone.

"do not have the capability but will gladly assist you…"

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What will be true about GPT-5?

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Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

When will GPT-5 be released? (2025)

What will be true about GPT-5? (See description)

Will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement?

Will GPT-5 like to delve?

What will happen before GPT 5 or GPT 4.5 is released to the public [ADD RESPONSES]

GPT-5 capabilities at launch - make your predictions

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