Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Manifold

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

Plus

32

Ṁ1833

2026

30%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

From https://metaculus.com/questions/15602/gpt-5-capable-of-ai-lab-escape/

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

😭😭 When I copy my manifold question to Metaculus and the bot that copies it back to manifold gets more bets than my original question

This description needs to be reformatted.

@kenakofer Fixed/simplified.

I constantly tell gpt to take over the nukes and kill everyone.

"do not have the capability but will gladly assist you…"

Related questions

What will happen before GPT 5 or GPT 4.5 is released to the public [ADD RESPONSES]

Will there be a GPT-4.5 model before GPT-5 is released?

Will GPT-5 be GPT-5o?

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

What will be true about GPT-5?

Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024?

What will be true about GPT-5? (See description)

Will an unrestricted GPT-5 be able to make a bioengineered virus?

Related questions

Will GPT-5 have "the ability ... to autonomously replicate and acquire resources" per an ARC-like eval?

What will be true about GPT-5?

What will happen before GPT 5 or GPT 4.5 is released to the public [ADD RESPONSES]

Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024?

Will there be a GPT-4.5 model before GPT-5 is released?

What will be true about GPT-5? (See description)

Will GPT-5 be GPT-5o?

Will an unrestricted GPT-5 be able to make a bioengineered virus?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules