It is reported that Greg Brockman will return from personal leave "next month" -- presumably before December, and in 2024.
How long will his return last? And will it even happen? Given that in Greg's absence
OpenAI appears to function just fine
Every other early employee or executive has left (or at least most of them)
Most "head of" roles left or were replaced
All the co-founders other than Sam Altman have left
Sam Altman is reported to negotiating a $10B package out of the company re-forming deal
For consistency, for all of these options...
Assume the default is NO. The burden of proof is on YES, and will be resolved through clear and multiple media reports OR directly from OpenAI or Sam Altman (on blog or on X).
How do we know if Greg Brockman came back to OpenAI before December? Multiple media reports, Sam Altman, OpenAI or Greg Brockman will tell us that.
What if the reports disagree? We will go with the most senior source (starting with Sam Altman, then OpenAI official blog and X account) but also with common sense.
If there is a single report and no confirmation... we default to NO. Burden of proof is on YES in every option.
Also note that generally speaking, we look at the date of the announcement. If Brockman announces he is leaving OpenAI... we count the date of announcement not his leaving date. Although we wait a few days for him to change his mind. As OpenAI has hit some undo buttons in the past on leadership changes.
If you have a problem with judgement in unlikely close cases, or with me betting this market, this market isn't for you ❤️
1,000
3.00