@Moscow25 just to clarify does "before Feb 2025" means something like "box office through 1/31/25"? I presume you may wait a few days for actuals to resolve, but you won't be using any box office receipts from after 1/31, yes?

@polymathematic yes

@Ziddletwix i think this is gonna be a NO, i def personally got this wrong after the big opening, yikes

@Ziddletwix yeah big opening but maybe not the best movie of all time...

Unofficial but this is not counting today. Already at over $150M globally and will cross over $200M today. The question is will it get to $300M globally this weekend.

Not much info on how many countries outside US are showing this movie. BOMojo saying 27% International so far...

@Moscow25 it'll sail past 300M global for the 5-day (probably battling super mario's ~370M 5-day)

i'd be a little wary of reading too much into the BOM international live numbers, they update at different paces. although worth noting that it's not an international holiday, so international markets will be more concentrated on the weekend than domestic.

@Ziddletwix Good point! Mexico will come out hard today and tomorow.

@Ziddletwix Didn’t know about Super Mario. Thanks!

@Moscow25 i'll take the big-ish loss on the 300M market & it's not the end of the world but it's extremely confusing for the "5-day opening" markets to now be edited to refer to global gross. by default, "opening weekend" refers to domestic. for example, polymarket has the same wording and same strike price (I assumed you were mirroring their option), but is obviously domestic, just like the "opening weekend" on BOM (this market's resolution source) is defined as domestic (3-day). plus in context, the options only made sense for domestic—150/200/300M are reasonable strikes for 5-day domestic, but would be irrelevant for global (150M/200M were never really in play for global).

(it's extra confusing since in your comment below, before it was edited, you specifically mention that the domestic gross will pass 200M but not 300M, which is a weird comparison to make when that isn't at all relevant for this market, as apparently none of the options refer to the domestic opening?)

so my 2000M loss on the 300mil option isn't the end of the world but going forward, "opening weekend" refers to domestic and i would assume people bet on that assumption

@Ziddletwix (I guess @Bayesian was the other one who lost from that change. imo it should probably be N/A'd but I guess I didn't ask to clarify)

@Ziddletwix yeah I'm happy to resolve to N/A

reading the Polymarket rules and it's not super obvious but does appear to be "Domestic" [possibly including Canada]

@Moscow25 I agree I should have either copied Polymarket correctly or made it clear from the start

@Moscow25 yeah "opening weekend" by default basically always refers to domestic (and it's true that the word "domestic" in boxoffice-speak does include canada, which is somewhat add, but box office numbers are their own thing)

@Ziddletwix resolving N/A -- hopefully most fair outcome -- I will know for next time. The longer range markets were always marked clearly...

@Moscow25 SGTM!

Of course this is "estimated" but looks like Moana 2 is doing $50M/day to 4,200 sold out theaters.

Should clear $200M easily but not enough shows to get close to $300M Domestically --- though possibly globally... which is the market

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl862748673/?ref_=bo_tt_gr_1

jesus this might be another monster opener lol

@Ziddletwix hard to imagine it won't be...