Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
US Politics2024 US Presidential ElectionPolitics
Basic
295
Ṁ105k
2025
1.5%
chance
resolving Jan 20, 2025
Get Ṁ600 play money

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21 Comments
202 Holders
946 Trades
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fk when you have no and buy 100$ worth of yes it actually sells the no automatically

@DeanValentine no actually I'm just retarded

predicts NO

@DeanValentine Well it does do that. 1 NO share plus 1 YES share always equals M$1, so there'd be no reason someone would want to hold both. If you buy one type of share while holding the other, they'll cancel out and return you mana.

(betting on rugpull, not Dwayne Johnson winning)
predicts NO
I created a derivative market: https://manifold.markets/Yusef/will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us "Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?"
predicts NO
@M you mean https://manifold.markets/M/will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo-637c1bad64bd
predicts NO
@JiSK ops, thanks for providing the correct link!
Based on the creator’s bio and other information, pretty worried they’re not going to resolve this right. Obviously Dwayne Johnson won’t win.
Not selling because I think this has even 1% chance of happening, I just needed the liquidity for things that had higher rate of return due to resolving sooner. Anyone who isn't already 20 NO in this market can get "free" money by buying that with their loan, presuming good resolution. It's just two years out.
* "more than 5%" should read "more like 5%"
Can you explain why you think it's more than 5% that The Rock will smell what the White House chef is cooking? I made this market as a test of the resilience of play-money prediction markets, because I personally can't understand why anyone would give credence to them....
I think the correct odds are closer to 5% than 15%. But definitely higher than 1%.
I created https://manifold.markets/M/will-yusef-question-about-dwayne-jo to ask is this market going to be resolved correctly
The real uncertainty here is on this market resolving correctly.
fails
heads
My god, how is this at 19% now? Buying some NO that I can sell if needed once it gets back down to like 1%.
Maybe someone using it to transfer money between accounts? Or there is a derivative market I don't see? Or someone YOLOing M$ 1717?
@Blume: I'd expect it's because of the new loans feature?
Why is this market active all of a sudden?

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