This market predicts whether significant reforms to copyright law affecting AI-generated works will be enacted by December 31, 2026. With the rapid development of generative AI, pressure is growing on copyright systems to adapt. A “Yes” outcome requires new laws or regulations that substantively alter copyright practices concerning AI. This prediction seeks to capture major changes impacting copyright ownership, fair use, or public domain status, beyond minor updates or clarifications.

Resolution Criteria:

For this market to resolve as “Yes,” by December 31, 2026, a major legislative or regulatory change must be enacted in the U.S., EU, or Japan. The change must meet one or more of the following conditions, reflecting a substantive shift in copyright policy for AI-generated works, like:

1. Recognition of AI-Generated Works for Copyright:

New laws or regulations grant copyright protections to AI-generated works, such as through new categories for “AI authorship” or co-authorship alongside humans.

2. Standards for Human-AI Collaboration:

Formal standards define how much human input is required for copyright eligibility when AI is used in content creation, clarifying rules for mixed AI-human works.

3. Public Domain Status for AI-Only Works:

Policies are enacted that explicitly place all fully AI-generated works in the public domain, creating distinct legal treatment for AI-produced content.

4. Fair Use Expansion for AI:

Significant changes to “fair use” provisions directly accommodate AI, such as by creating new exceptions for training on copyrighted data or for non-commercial AI-generated transformations.

5. Platform Liability or Rights in AI Content:

New rules redefine platform liability for AI-generated content or enhance user rights in sharing and transforming AI outputs, marking a structural shift in AI content governance.

Only clear, enacted reforms that carry substantive implications for AI-generated copyright will qualify. Incremental updates, minor clarifications, or judicial interpretations alone do not meet the threshold for a “Yes” outcome.