Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations? | Manifold

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?

28

1kṀ1639

2050

19%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

sold Ṁ55 NO

selling my shares as it seems likely they will never pause - but the criteria is a bit vague.

bought Ṁ10 NO

oh this is another one of those markets that can't ever resolve NO. pointless. I'll just take my -M1 loss then and forget about it

@Pykess Changed question to 2035

Rana GsoldṀ10NO

Does it have to be unilateral or can they be forced by regulator?

Will this resolve NO if we reach the close date without Anthropic having paused?

Related questions

Will Anthropic release a reasoning model before March 2025?

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Will Anthropic be acquired by another company before the end of 2025?

[Metaculus] Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic announce a pause on large training runs for safety reasons, before 2026?

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?

Will I be an Anthropic employee on May 1st, 2025?

+6% 1d80% chance

Will Anthropic employ Scott Aaronson before Spring 2025?

Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?

Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?

Related questions

Will Anthropic release a reasoning model before March 2025?

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?

Will I be an Anthropic employee on May 1st, 2025?

Will Anthropic, before 2035, completely halt development of AI and attempt to persuade other organizations to do so?

Will Anthropic employ Scott Aaronson before Spring 2025?

Will Anthropic be acquired by another company before the end of 2025?

Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?

[Metaculus] Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic announce a pause on large training runs for safety reasons, before 2026?

Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules