Will LOY-001 establish efficacy? | Manifold

Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?

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Loyal, a company developing treatments for longevity in dogs, recently announced that they have "completed the technical effectiveness portion of their conditional approval for [their first drug candidate]".

Will they successfully establish efficacy (according to the FDA)? Resolves NO if they fail for any reason, including, for example, running out of money before they complete their studies.

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Loyal is in my broader professional orbit (eg Celine was at the Future Forum), so I was surprised to see a LessWrong post arguing that their drug doesn't work...

Added M$1000 subsidy; this seems like an important question!

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vHSkxmYYqW59sySqA/the-likely-first-longevity-drug-is-based-on-sketchy-science

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Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?

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