Meant to be roughly equivalent to this market, but for different species and with a shorter time horizon:
A potential therapy with strong scientific support as described in that market would qualify. I'd also accept a commercial treatment that bypasses rigorous scientific review, but that has such dramatically obvious health benefits that no one really doubts its efficacy.
I'm mostly thinking of common household pets here (cats, dogs, parakeets, etc.), but I guess commercial livestock would fit too, if someone actually worked on a therapy targeting those.
I'll try to resolve by my own best judgment based on any evidence anyone cares to present in the comments. Hopefully the answer will be plainly obvious one way or the other by then anyway. I will not be betting in this market.
1,000
3.00@ArunJohnson Sure. For simplicity, let's say either a 10% reduction in biological age according to whatever suite of biomarkers they use, or an explicit statement by the developers that the reduction is "equivalent to 10 human years."
I'm personally hoping the exact numbers won't be relevant anyway due to "such dramatically obvious health benefits that no one really doubts its efficacy," but we'll see. 🤞