When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >80km?
➕
Plus
4
Ṁ719
2031
8%
2026 or earlier
16%
2027 or earlier
18%
2028 or earlier
19%
2029 or earlier
20%
2030 or earlier
29%
2035 or earlier

Background

Virgin Galactic recently retired their SpaceShipTwo vehicle in order to develop their new Delta-class of vehicles - a similar spacecraft derived from SpaceShipTwo but designed to have a higher capacity (6 passengers instead of 4) and to be much easier to reuse

They're currently aiming for a maiden flight in 2026

Resolution criteria

For the flight to count, the Delta-class ship must reach an altitude of >80km and safely land with at least one human on board

A Delta-class ship is any more advanced ship derived from SpaceShipTwo

(It does not necessarily need to be referred to as a 'Delta' ship to count)

(It also doesn't necessarily need to have been launched by Virgin Galactic to count)

I may resolve answers NO prematurely if it is sufficiently clear that it won't occur (though I will consult with traders before doing so)

Relevant info and related markets

/Nat/will-virgin-galactic-still-exist-in

Eric Berger's article on Virgin Galactic's ambitious plans for the next few years

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