Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance? | Manifold

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Plus

43

Ṁ1885

2031

74%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Linchuan Zhang and Joel Becker recently bet on this. The full operationalization of their bet is as follows (which I got from https://twitter.com/joel_bkr/status/1495097579369119748?s=21): ————— Linch 1:14 PM Proposed bet operationalization: "a person who had <100M at the time they a) became an EA and b) as of Feb 28 2021, would at any point before February 28 2031 have >$1B USD. Where EA is defined as "either a) public self-identification as EA, b) signing the Giving What Can pledge or c) taking the EA survey and being a 4 or 5 on the engagement axis , and $ as "in inflation-adjusted 2021 dollars.'" Note that this operationalization would include people who are not EAs today, but would include people who become EAs in the next 10 years as long as they had <$100M. Joel Becker 5:17 PM Needs to explicitly exclude crypto too With that, I take the bet at $10 :) Linch 9:00 PM right excluding crypto and inheritances ————— This market resolves to YES if Linchuan wins the bet and NO if Joel wins, according to Linchuan’s and Joel’s reports. If the two disagree on who won the bet, the market resolves to N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Effective Altruism

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

The Tweet isn't public.

@WilliamKiely I just saw the colon after the Twitter link, so never mind. (Also looks like you can't delete comments anymore.)

"<100M" - this means <100 manifold dollars right?

2031 is a long way off, in humans-existing and tech-advancing years. Billionaire will likely be a somewhat lower bar by then. I'm suspecting something related to AI will result in unexpected (by conventional economy) wealth shifts.

Fingers crossed!

Effective Altruist https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism

Explain it like I am 5? What is an EA for starters?

Q: does "means other than crypto" exclude things like "founding FTX"?

Related questions

Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2024?

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Will there be a trillionaire by the end of 2028?

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Will anyone become a trillionaire before 2030?

Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, *including* crypto or inheritance?

Will Mrbeast be a billionaire by 2025

Will I double my net worth by February 2025?

Will there be a trillionaire (USD) by EOY 2029?

Will I (@dgga) end up with a positive all-time profit by EOY 2024?

Related questions

Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2024?

Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, *including* crypto or inheritance?

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Will Mrbeast be a billionaire by 2025

Will there be a trillionaire by the end of 2028?

Will I double my net worth by February 2025?

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Will there be a trillionaire (USD) by EOY 2029?

Will anyone become a trillionaire before 2030?

Will I (@dgga) end up with a positive all-time profit by EOY 2024?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules