There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years
Plus
20
Ṁ45302030
1.3%
2024
16%
2025
23%
2026
23%
2027
36%
Paying its own server costs. Running its own code.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
IMO, by including "paying its own server costs" you're excluding what will be the actual first: stealing its server time.
The turning point for AI, the real day that everything changes will be when AI starts acting like a virus.
That is, it invades a host and runs there. Then it repeats its behavior, which in this case is to invade a system and run there. Then those repeat...
If I were a betting man I'd say it's gonna happen soon. Real soon.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a frontier AI lab release a computer-use agent product by April?
Computer-use AI agent gets scammed / falls victim to a phishing attack, in 2025?
78% chance
4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.
75% chance
Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?
42% chance
Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?
81% chance
An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?
44% chance
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
33% chance
AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
82% chance
There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027
28% chance
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
8% chance