Will I believe any AI system is conscious before 2027?
4
100Ṁ262027
48%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Needs 95% confidence to resolve YES. I am probably somewhere around 20% for current models and likely need to see interpretability research suggesting this to get to high confidence.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?
72% chance
When will I believe an AI is conscious with >66% credence?
2030
Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100?
74% chance
What will Rob Long's credence be that there exists a conscious AI system at end of 2024?
19% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
28% chance
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
33% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
42% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
64% chance
Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2025 end?
13% chance