Would be interested in taking a heavy positing if this gets a bit more detailed

Already is in many ways. What do we mean exactly? Like embodied AI using commonsense? Estimation? Throwing something accurately? Nice question though!!! I will consider

Interesting market, but how will smartness be measured here?

@GazDownright Let’s see what Elon Musk proposes.

@Predictor So this market is along the lines of "Will Elon Musk deem his own prediction to be correct?"

The use of "probably" makes this vague it could mean is the AI probably smarter, it could mean probably by this date... All questions on here relate to subjective judgement of probability, so "Will AI be smarter than any one human by the end of 2025?" would be much clearer IMO.

This could use clearer resolution criteria

Does this mean smarter than 50% of humans?

@Paul No.

@Predictor Can you explain what you mean by “probably” then?

@Paul Like probably by the end of 2025 AI will be smarter than any one human.