In a recent Dwarkesh podcast interview with the head of Anthropic, Dario Amodei makes the claim that an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" could be as soon as 2-3 years away.
Relevant video: https://youtu.be/Nlkk3glap_U?si=2JyHLqMSxIxdakR6
At the end of 2025 (roughly 2.5 years), how well will this claim hold up?
I will make a poll at market close and ask the following:
"Does AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" currently exist?"
The poll will stay up for 1 week.
This market resolves YES if the poll resolves "YES".
Otherwise this market will resolve NO.
@firstuserhere Median US citizen IMO, but because this resolves to a poll that will be up to interpretation.
Currently there are many simple text-based tasks that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't.
For as long as that's true, I believe the result should be NO.
These two markets are about that, and the current probability (24%) seems to somewhat align with these markets: 4% by the end of 2025, 33% by the end of 2026.
@Joshua I suspect the poll will model reality, but could always have a related market about that fact!