Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027? | Manifold

Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?

Basic

6

Ṁ239

2027

41%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The requirement are that such system exist and the general public knows about, either from a leak or an announcement, it doesn’t have to take the job, just that such system exist by the end of 2027, or at Friday, December 31, 2027.

It should be capable of doing 50% of jobs that exist in the year 2020, at least as good as the average person in those jobs, as cost efficient as the people in those jobs. It must be a single system and NOT a collection of system.

(Modified from LDJ’s HLSI benchmark)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

#Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

It's getting closer

(My actual belief is < 5%, but I have huge uncertainty in how will this be resolved. )

If there is such a leak, how will you validate it? People talk a lot.. even about Strawberry, there were rumors about "median human benchmark". It may be on that level in particular tasks, but far from actually replacing the jobs.

@Irigi Leaks will have to be verifiable, likely by an official government whistle blower documents or by an employee under oath, but I doubt this question will will be resolved via a leak, it will likely be resolved via an official announcement

Related questions

Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?

-13% 1d26% chance

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?

Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?

By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?

Will AI take over the world by 2100?

Will >50% of Fortune 500 global managers report regularly using generative AI for work by June 30, 2025?

Will we see AI take over at least 100,000 jobs by 2027?

Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?

Related questions

Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?

By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Will AI take over the world by 2100?

Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?

Will >50% of Fortune 500 global managers report regularly using generative AI for work by June 30, 2025?

Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?

Will we see AI take over at least 100,000 jobs by 2027?

Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?

Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules