Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?
Basic
17
Ṁ6382039
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
If left closed, do you think anyone will remember to resolve this claim in 2040?
I suggest it is reopened with a 2040 close date.
@NathanpmYoung Sure. Assumed the question was a "Are we AGI yet" proxy, so real GDP. But it's legimate as nominal GDP too, however then Yes is a mix of low probability "very good thing" (global productivity revolution) and low probability "very bad thing" (global hyperinflation)
@NathanpmYoung I hope not so bad that 20% is a possible but erroneous output? Not my field of expertise, sorry
More related questions
Related questions
Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2030?
19% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040?
30% chance
Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 20 years?
61% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043?
45% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than X% in any single year before 2030?
Will the world economy grow by more than 10000% in a single year before the year X?
Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 15 years?
43% chance
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2035?
22% chance
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
38% chance
World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)
60% chance