Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next? (OLD MECHANISM)
16
820Ṁ407
Jun 23
7%Other
6%
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture
18%
Hodge conjecture
48%
Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness
5%
P versus NP problem
11%
Riemann hypothesis
5%
Yang–Mills existence and mass gap
As judged by the Clay Math Institute.
Math
Millennium Prize Problems
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I've decided to close this market, since it uses Manifold's old market mechanism. It'll still resolve as normal. Let me know if you want me to reopen it.

If you want to trade on this question, see this new market with fixed payouts:

  1. Navier Stokes

  2. Birch Swinnerton-Dyer

  3. Hodge

  4. Yang-mills

  5. Riemann

  6. P vs NP

that is the order I think it will go

I made a multiple-choice version of this question now that we have that market type available:

"Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?"

Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Terence Tao gave an interesting talk on an approach to Navier-Stokes a few years ago which made me think this was somewhat tractable.

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Will an AI System Solve One of the Remaining Millennium Prize Problems by June 2025?
1% chance
By the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?
Will all Millennium Prize problems by solved by the end of the century?
78% chance
Will *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?
55% chance
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2040?
75% chance
Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?
9% chance
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