Which New Zealand birds will go extinct in the 21st century?
Basic
6
Ṁ397
2101
57%
Chatham Island tāiko
57%
New Zealand fairy tern/tara iti
47%
Australasian bittern/matuku-hūrepo
45%
Black stilt/kakī
43%
Kermadec white-faced storm petrel
38%
Antipodean wandering albatross/toroa
38%
Chatham Island oystercatcher/tōrea tai
38%
Shore plover/tuturuatu
38%
Northern rock wren/pīwauwau
38%
Whenua Hou diving petrel
37%
Chatham Island black robin
33%
Gibson’s wandering albatross/toroa
29%
Orange-fronted parakeet/kākāriki karaka
26%
Salvin's mollymawk
21%
Southern New Zealand dotterel/tūturiwhatu
21%
Kākāpō
20%
Pacific white tern
9%
White heron/kōtuku

This year's Bird of the Century competition, which includes birds that went extinct in the past 100 years, has gotten me thinking.

Happy to add any other birds from here.

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Haven't seen a question on who will win bird of the year? Only asking after seeing/reading about John Oliver's campaign this year 😂 will be interesting to see the influence (or not) of his campaign on the results

@JulianLees No, I haven't made one this year

Some quite outstanding turnarounds and innovations in NZ conservation over many years (albeit with lots of work still to go).

Have done a rough coverage of my brief look at the options. Fairy terns and Taiko stood out to me as highest likelihood. Climate and storm threat seems significant for them alongside food sources, predation and human encroachment. Australasian bittern was another that stood out but admittedly the first time I've heard of it.

I think there's likely to be some larger shifts from the less endangered species so should they crop up I'll try to suggest. A species largely based in Dunedin rings a bell... Affected by disease wiping out large proportions of the population.

The technology and expenditure on individual species I hope will arrest some of these critically endangered species.

For example new Zealand monitors individual kākāpō. That's the level of support being provided. Perhaps not scalable though as more species are threatened.

I'm taking my typically optimistic view here. Haha

The impact of climate change here could be a huge systematic error in my current spread too.

Haven't seen reference of a Northern rock wren before. Assume this is the same as the rock wren that is found in the south island alpine environment?

Such a tiny bird... Only slightly bigger than the rifleman!

@JulianLees Seems DOC have a different page for the southern one, and it's listed separately.

@NcyRocks wow interesting...

Definitely listed there so I wonder where it lives!

Kōtuku are also found outside of NZ:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_great_egret

Are we defining extinction as no longer existing in the country, or everywhere on earth?

@tfae Great question! Didn't realise that. I copied this list from the ones listed by DOC as 'nationally critical', but I think everywhere-on-Earth makes more sense for this market.

@NcyRocks In that case, given the "wide distribution", I'd put the extinction risk quite low 😄

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