Who will be the first person on Mars?
Basic
10
Ṁ2652029
34%
27%
Connor Duffy
14%
Someone who is not an option in this market at close time
10%
Qiaochu Yuan
6%
Jared Isaacman
2%
Jebediah Kerman
2%
X Æ A-12
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@kolotom99 Thanks! I was fiddling with a market-tracking spreadsheet and needed a dummy market title, typed this out on a whim, and thought "Hang on, that could actually be a good one..."
@MartinRandall arguably not a person
Of course, I think (hard AI is true) xor (hard AI is false and we are not truly intelligent by the same definition)
@LivInTheLookingGlass My m1 is a bet that the first person will be an AI which has "personhood" in the relevant sense.
@MartinRandall An AI with personhood would count. Defining personhood will be tricky, but that's a bridge to be crossed later...
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