Resolves YES if Joe Biden runs in 2024, with both feet off the ground.
Apr 13, 11:00am: Will Joe Biden run in 2024? → Will Joe Biden literally run in 2024?
@MP I just watched the intro - he did pump his arms but it looked more like a speedwalk to me. Did he run at a later point in the program?
"He was seen walking back to his seat unassisted and later jogging back to his motorcade when the ceremony ended." - Joe Biden 'fine' after fall on stage in Colorado (bbc.com) (June 1 2023)
Unfortunately I haven't been able to find video or pictures of this.
However I did find a video where he jogs for about a second and a half, from September. Unfortunately we can't see his feet, but based on his gait it appears that both feet are off the ground in this frame.
@TiredCliche I would bet it up to 100 but apparently there is room for disagreement, as Bing emphatically disagrees with me.
@TiredCliche Good old Bing, insisting that June 2022 was 2 months ago...
I haven't seen the video, but that looks like it's probably a run to me. Seems he runs more regularly than this market assumed. I don't know if I'd bet up to 100, though!
@NcyRocks It's at 1:42, just as "artificial intelligence" is mentioned. None of this is a coincidence, because nothing is ever a coincidence.
@TiredCliche Oof, hard to tell. I guess this would probably suffice for YES, but it'd be the absolute bare minimum! If it ends up being this close of a call, I'd probably run a poll or something.
@NcyRocks I know. That goddamn zoom out to show his feet just as he stops feels like I'm being deliberately trolled.
Still looking for other footage, especially from the June event. Maybe C-Span will have something.
@FlorisvanDoorn Right. I've used a loose definition of "running in 2024" for some of my political markets (counting the whole 2024 election cycle), but this one is strictly about whether Biden will run in 2024, the calendar year.
@Gen It’ll probably end up being a “know it when I see it” situation, but a standing jump won’t suffice; he must be moving. I don’t see any reason to specify a distance that his feet should be apart.
@NcyRocks Can you edit the title with that? This question keeps showing up in the related markets and I have to remember that it's from April 1 lol
@NcyRocks thanks. Yeah as a general rule I believe the community norm is that misleading titles are bad and should not be allowed (with some leeway for jokes)