Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2040?
Plus
24
Ṁ12772040
75%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@NiclasKupper If the UK still exists in some form in 2040, this resolves based on that.
Note that even if the UK breaks up entirely before 2040, this question still has to stay open to see if it reforms.
Hello anyone remember the Lindy effect - Wikipedia, the chance that the UK abolishes the monarchy is like 1%
bought Ṁ1 YES at 76%
bought Ṁ1 NO at 76%
@TimothyCurrie That's a good rule of thumb, but things are a bit different now to how they've been over the last ~1000 years!
Related questions
Related questions
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2050?
63% chance
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2060?
61% chance
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2070?
61% chance
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2100?
52% chance
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2080?
63% chance
Will the UK be a constitutional monarchy in 2090?
63% chance
Will the United Kingdom become more authoritarian in 2024?
33% chance
Will Charles cease to be King of the UK by end of 2025?
17% chance
Will the Netherlands still be a monarchy in 2050?
47% chance
Will Prince William become king by 2030?
67% chance