Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
Plus
55
Ṁ61442030
66%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.
If one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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According to actuarial tables, the odds of dying in a given year increases by roughly 50% as you age by 4. Thus, the fair price should be about 1.5/(1+0.5) = 60%.
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