Will a silly Manifold market wipe out humanity before 2030?
Standard
32
Ṁ12142030
1.3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Someone/something will resolve YES if there is credible evidence of a non-trivial causal link between a silly Manifold market and the extinction of humanity. Resolves NO if, by the start of 2030, we are still here or extinction has been caused by something other than a silly Manifold market.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
This market doesn't count as a silly market. It is, like other "wiping out" markets, obviously very serious.
Related questions
Related questions
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
7% chance
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
53% chance
Will Manifold go bankrupt before 2030?
25% chance
Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)
59% chance
Will Manifold be profitable before 2030?
47% chance
Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100" market decline to 10% by the end of 2024?
56% chance
Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030?
21% chance
Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?
20% chance
How many Manifold markets will close on January 1st, 2030?
Will any Manifold markets created in 2023 be resolved in 2050 by the original author?
81% chance