This is a market in a series on markets for possible quantified self experiments I might run.

Context here, in short: I will put up >10 of these markets, run the "best" one (my own judgment, but probably just the one with the highest expected Cohen's d), and a random one (resolving them to the outcome), and will resolve all the others as N/A. In all experiments, I will be using the statistical method detailed here, code for it here.

This trial will not be blinded. As such, even though I try to not form an opinion on its outcome, all kinds of subconscious biases might creep in. Sorry for this confounder while forecasting.

50 samples, 25 intervention (turning on my lumenator of ~30k lumen in the morning), 25 non-intervention (turning on my normal desk lamp of ~1k lumen), selecte

d via echo -e "lamp\nno lamp" | shuf | tail -1. Expected duration of trial: 4 months, as I often don't spend all my day at home.

In general, I measure happiness by randomly experience sampling using MoodPatterns (more info here).

Past happiness data can be found here.