Will there be evidence in 2025 that in April 2023, OpenAI had a GPT-4.5 or higher model?
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16%
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Resolves YES if in 2025 there is a lot of evidence that OpenAI had a base model with a LM language-modelling loss lower than a model trained with 7X the compute using the GPT-4 scaling law.
This excludes retrieval and other "cheap to apply to GPT-4, known capability enhancements".
A "partially trained" model with a sufficiently low loss counts.
See https://twitter.com/taoroalin/status/1647049143519694848
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