When will the next UK General Election take place?
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8
Ṁ3835
2025
1%
Before 01/01/2026
5%
Before 01/01/2027
10%
Before 01/01/2028
55%
Before 01/01/2029

This resolves YES for all options which are true of the polling day for the first UK General Election following 4th July 2024. Otherwise options resolve NO three weeks before their named date, at which point it is too late under current UK law to call an election.

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Under the law passed during the last parliament, the date that the next election must be legally held by is 25 working days (35 ordinary days), five years after the formal meeting of the Parliament. This Parliament will formally meet on Wednesday for the King's Speech (July 17th 2024), therefore the last date for the election will be August 21st 2029 (a Tuesday), therefore the last practical date will be August 16th 2029 (a Thursday)

Yeah, that’s the reason I didn’t include a 1/1/2030 option as barring something insane it should default to 100%. TBH I suspect the actual percentages should be closer to 50% / 50% on the 2029 option but four years is a long time in politics.

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