How long will alien civilisations broadcast their existence into space?
Plus
24
Ṁ6512026
3%
1 to 100 years
11%
100 to 1,000 years
14%
1,000 to 10,000 years
63%
10,000 to 100,000 years
2%
100,000 to 1,000,000 years
1.1%
1,000,000 to 10,000,000 years
0.7%
10,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 years
5%
This market will be used to calculate L for the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation project. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation).
This market is intended to not resolve and functions as a stock ticker tracking the current scientific consensus. It will close intermittently to allow for easy tracking of project and reopen once recordings are taken. If a solid scientific consensus is held over a significant period of time (multiple decades) then it may resolve to that consensus.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Results of this market will be used here at first closure:
https://manifold.markets/Noit/how-many-aliens-does-manifold-think?r=Tm9pdA
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