How long will alien civilisations broadcast their existence into space? | Manifold

How long will alien civilisations broadcast their existence into space?

Plus

24

Ṁ633

2026

3%

1 to 100 years

10%

100 to 1,000 years

14%

1,000 to 10,000 years

64%

10,000 to 100,000 years

1.9%

100,000 to 1,000,000 years

1%

1,000,000 to 10,000,000 years

0.7%

10,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 years

5%

Other

This market will be used to calculate L for the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation project. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation).

This market is intended to not resolve and functions as a stock ticker tracking the current scientific consensus. It will close intermittently to allow for easy tracking of project and reopen once recordings are taken. If a solid scientific consensus is held over a significant period of time (multiple decades) then it may resolve to that consensus.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Manifold Solves the Drake Equation

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https://manifold.markets/Noit/how-many-aliens-does-manifold-think?r=Tm9pdA

How Many Aliens Does Manifold Think Might We Talk To? Manifold Solves the Drake Equation

This market resolves based on the output of the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation prediction markets for each variable in the Drake Equation, linked below, as priced at time of this market closure. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation). For questions with a percentage output, the YES percentage will be used for the calculation. For questions with a category output, the midpoint of the highest-YES-valued category will be used (e.g. if the category lists 1-10, then the output used will be 5). [markets]

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