Resolves to official announcements by NATO. Implementation date does not need to be before July 2025, just the announcement.

Background

NATO's current defense spending target of 2% of GDP was established at the 2014 Wales Summit. As of early 2024, NATO's European allies have collectively reached this target for the first time, marking a significant milestone in the alliance's history. The ongoing security challenges, particularly Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have led to increased focus on defense spending among NATO members.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if NATO officially announces a new defense spending target above 2% of GDP for its members before July 2025. The announcement must:

• Come from an official NATO source (e.g., Secretary General, North Atlantic Council, or official communiqué)

• Explicitly state a new target percentage above 2% of GDP

• Be a formal policy decision rather than a discussion or proposal

The market resolves NO if:

• No such announcement is made by July 2025

• NATO reaffirms the current 2% target without increasing it

• Only individual member states announce higher targets without NATO formally changing the alliance-wide goal

Considerations

While several NATO members currently spend more than 2% of GDP on defense, and some have called for higher targets, changing the official NATO-wide target would require consensus among all 32 member states. Any such change would represent a significant shift in NATO's defense policy framework.