Which star within 50k ly will go supernova next.

Plus

Ṁ3238

2050

77%

T Coronae Borealis

Betlgeuse

Eta Carinae

1.7%

WR 102

1.5%

WR 142

1.5%

Sher 25

1.5%

HD 168625

1.5%

HD 168625

1.5%

HD 179821 (V1427 Aquilae)

1.5%

Other

Only supernovas within 50k light years will be counted.

Market will extend until a supernova explosion is detected within 50k ly from earth at which point the supernova progenitor will be selected as the answer.

Feel free to add other canidates, but please make sure they are within 50k ly.

Any supernova type counts, but it has to be a supernova, not something like a neutron star merger, or other exotic event (or a regular nova)

If there's no consensus about wether an event is a supernova or not, I will try to wait until the controversy is resolved and may refer to sources such as wikipedia or notable scientific publications

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Space

#Astronomy

#Supernova

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1,000

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3.00

15 Comments

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Um have to concur nova isn't a supernova, something has to change. This is a magnet for fools like me who don't read with enough thought and precision

@JussiVilleHeiskanen what's not clear ? How is a nova a supernova ? I sincererly don't get why people are confused.

bought Ṁ1 NO

T Coronae Borealis does not have nearly enough mass to go supernova; what regularly happens to it is going nova, which is not "a type of supernova". Maybe one could argue the opposite, that supernovae are a type of nova, but not the other way around. The fact that T CrB undergoes these events regularly further shows they're not supernovae (as a supernova destroys its parent star).

If this market resolves to that option once the star goes nova in the next few months, that will be a misresolution.

Edit: since individual options cannot be N/A'ed, it might be best to edit the market to be about going "nova or supernova".

@Odoacre

@mods

I'm fine clarifying that only supernova count, not nova, and also fine N/Aing the entire market, but I don't think editing the market to be 'nova or supernova' is good

bought Ṁ1,250 NO

The original intent of the question likely meant to include novae, as shown by the inclusion of T CrB.

But in any case, I just bought that option wayyyyy down, relying on your ruling that when it goes nova in the next year or so it will not resolve this question.

Which I now realize is dumb as all fuck because none of these stars is going supernova in the next tens of thousands of years, probably. So now I think N/A is in my interest. Maybe the six YES holders would agree, since their mana is immobilized in an option that's literally physically impossible.

@Crazypedia @EstMtz @Arky @BoredQuokka @PseudonymousBosche24f do y'all agree to N/A so we can all have our mana back?

We should probably try pinging @Odoacre at least one more time, they’re still active

@BrunoParga NA is fine with me

Edit Wrong thread?

Nova is not a supernova.

Also it's theoretically possible for T Coronae borealis to become a type 1a supernova even though the current estimated mass for the white dwarf is well below the limit the recurring nova events show that mass transfer is happening, so eventually it might permanently go boom

bought Ṁ20 YES

going to be a wild year

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