Will the US government announce an intention to fund a human mission to Mars before the end of March 2025?
Plus
5
Ṁ2502025
39%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Any official announcement by the US president or NASA of a new humans-on-mars program, or any relevant elected or unelected official would count as Yes.
A humans-on-mars funding commitment by congress would also count as a Yes.
An announcement by Musk would count as a Yes if it is clear that the funding source is intended to be US government funds.
SpaceX getting unrelated government contracts and then spending the money on a Mars mission would not be sufficient.
Press/Expert rumours of such a plan would not be sufficient.
I will judge the situation on 1st April and make a determination.
Deadline is 00:00 on 1st April 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a human mission successfully land on Mars before the end of 2035?
34% chance
Will a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?
53% chance
Will a human step foot on Mars by 2035?
41% chance
Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?
41% chance
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2050?
40% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?
70% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
31% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before the end of 2045?
48% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2050?
72% chance
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2040?
49% chance